Horizon Report: Expect Mobile Tech, Game-Based Learning, and Gesture-Based Computing To Be Mainstream in Academia Within Years

Ebooks, etextbooks, and mobile devices will achieve "mainstream use" in academic institutions within the next year, according to the EDUCAUSE Learning Initiative (ELI) and the New Media Consortium's 2011 edition [PDF] of the annual Horizon Report released earlier this month. Other technologies, such as game-based learning and augmented-reality applications, may also become mainstream in two to three years, predicts the report.

The report defines "mainstream use" as adoption by at least 20 percent of all academic institutions worldwide. By that measure, ebooks and especially e-journals are already well-established at most higher-ed institutions. But ELI director Malcolm Brown, who served as co-principal investigator on the advisory board, told LJ that the Horizon Report was not saying that "the ebook idea is new"—rather that ebooks, particularly e-textbooks, will become much more widely used, broadly envisioning a near-future when a majority of students will be using ebooks in their everyday lives. (In contrast, a recent panel at the O'Reilly Tools of Change for Publishing Conference pointed to significant remaining barriers for e-textbook adoption.)

Mobile influence
The report also indicates that social-networking and interactive aspects of ereaders showed signs of increased adoption, encouraged by the proliferation of mobile devices, and particularly interactive tablets such as the iPad. Several ereaders and ereading apps, for example, include the useful capability to add annotations and notes to texts.

The growth of mobile tech is also said to be spurring on augmented-reality software applications, in which a layer of additional information can be overlaid on real-world images. The report also highlighted "game-based learning," pointing out that popular massively multiplayer online role-playing games (MMORPGs), exemplified by World of Warcraft, "can draw on skills for research, writing, collaboration, problem-solving, public speaking, leadership, digital literacy, and media-making." Both technologies, the report predicted, were on track for mainstream adoption in academic institutions within two to three years.

The Horizon report goes on to predict the increasing popularity of "gesture-based computing," which includes interfaces such as touch screens and motion-sensor technology (as used on the Nintendo Wii and Microsoft Kinect game systems); and "learning analytics," the mining of student data to assess academic progress. The report looks for them both to be mainstream at academic institutions within four to five years.

The technologies highlighted were chosen by a 43-member advisory board featuring experts from ten countries. The members came primarily from higher-ed institutions, but also included participants from Hewlett-Packard and UK education not-for-profit Futurelab, among other organizations. (Previous Horizon Reports may be viewed here.)

[Watch for Michael Stephens's thoughts on the 2011 Horizon Report in his Office Hours column in LJ's 3/15 issue.]