ACRL Report on Higher Ed in 2025 Suggests 26 Possible Scenarios
By Norman Oder Jun 24, 2010A new report from the Association of College and Research Libraries (ACRL), "Futures Thinking for Academic Librarians: Higher Education in 2025," suggests a variety of scenarios that could dramatically affect libraries in 15 years.
Of 26 scenarios, nine are seen as both high impact and high probability, with the perceived speed of change for four judged to be particularly fast. They include the increasing threat of cybercrime/war on campus IT; incoming students "completely fluent in digital media;" the use of handheld devices to instantly access/scan information; and the decline of standard channels for scholarship (e.g., university presses), while faculty members do not fully embrace new tools.
Curiously enough, the word "Google" does not appear in the 33-page document. On Insider Higher Ed, commentators debated whether the report itself is too abstract to be practical.
This is by no means the only report to address the future of academic libraries. For example, after surveying faculty members, Ithaka S+R this spring warned that declining use of the academic library as a starting point for research portends potential irrelevance and, while the role of a library as a buyer of content remains vital, it must shift to focus on preserving digital content more than on print
Harsh future?
Two extremely harsh scenarios were rated of only medium probability, but certainly deserve notice.
In one, libraries go out of business, as "information companies come to dominate the market." Higher ed institutions wind up outsourcing many of the remaining functions, just as corporate libraries have done. However, one respondent observed that "certain discliplines will really advocate for this not to happen."
In the other, librarians no longer get tenure, while compensation becomes performance-based, providing incentives to those who create new search and research tools, or bring in grants or increase enrollment.
That scenario prompted one respondent to observe that libraries must convince faculty "of our vital role we play in nurturing students and some faculty."
ACRL report details
The "futures thinking" report was written by David J. Staley, director of the Harvey Goldberg Center for Excellence in Teaching in the History Department of Ohio State University, and Kara J. Malenfant, ACRL scholarly communications and government relations specialist, based on a survey of 404 members.
Of those surveyed, 61% of them are at large research and comprehensive universities and nearly half of them in administration or reference/research departments. About one-third of respondents have been working in academic libraries for 21 or more years.
"We felt it was important to focus on the long term future out as a way for academic librarians to open their minds and free their thinking," said ACRL President Lori A. Goetsch of Kansas State University.
Some scenarios
Here are a few selected examples from the report:
Archives on demand
Affordable 3-D printers are ubiquitous, and every teacher, researcher, and student is a manufacturer.
Breaking the textbook monopoly
Most states have passed legislation that requires textbook publishers to make textbooks affordable. Faculty members, sympathetic to their students, have embraced online open educational resources (OER). More faculty create and share openly their course materials, modules, streaming videos, tests, software, and other tools.
Everyone is a "non-traditional" student
The interwoven nature of work/life/school is accepted in higher education as life spans increase and students are unable to fund tuition in one lump.
No need to search
Content aware software senses topics as we write and inserts high quality and vetted metadata, citations, and images. Students are media savvy, easily navigating platform to platform to manage visual data and text. They no longer need the skills of acquiring and evaluating information as machines do that work. Instead, they spend time on tasks of synthesis, analysis, and interpretation.
Going forward
Readers are advised that the scenarios are not static, and that the document should be reviewed from time to time, with attention to the local external environment.
