A few weeks ago I wrote about the closure of all the libraries in Jackson County, Oregon. Knowing that a property tax measure was on the ballot for May 15, I confidently predicted that the citizens of Jackson County would realize the importance of their libraries and pass the measure. They didn't. At roughly a 58-42 split against the proposal, it wasn't even close. Not only that, but it looks like a neighboring county may also close its libraries.

Perhaps a little history and context is in order. For many years taxes on the large Southern Oregon lumber operations funded libraries. When the lumber industry ran out of land to clear cut and fell on hard times, so did the tax revenues. The Federal Government had been bailing out mostly rural counties like Jackson because of the loss in timber-based revenue. Despite being warned that this was a temporary state, not a permanent one, Jackson County failed to systemically deal with the shortfall. Short-term tax packages would be passed in a piecemeal attempt to keep things going, but eventually even that failed.

Despite being the world-renowned home of the Oregon Shakespeare Festival, universities, wineries, and other accoutrement of the good life, the fact remains that Jackson County as a whole is not particularly well-off. According to FedStats for Oregon and Jackson County, Jackson county is less well-off than Oregon as a whole, which is itself less well-off than the average American (compare figures for Personal Income per capita). Typically, people who are having a hard time making ends meet will not vote to make it even harder.

Also, if the 2006 Primary Election results are any guide, registered Republicans account for 52% of the voters to 38% registered Democrats. Republicans are not known for their support of tax measures.

So in hindsight, there were many reasons to be concerned about this library levy, and little evidence to support my optimistic and near-sighted appraisal. Mea culpa. In the wake of this disaster for Jackson County libraries, not only will the library staff and supporters of Jackson County not be sleeping well tonight, but neither will I. Not because my prediction foundered on reality, but because the reality we all face is more stark and disappointing than I dared predict.