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Kindle Controversy Revisited

November 12, 2008 A while back I predicted that despite predictions to the contrary (and all we have are guesses since Amazon is not talking) that the Kindle would go down in flames (that is, not sell). It's now five months later and I have absolutely no evidence upon which to revise my prediction. In fact, in revisiting this issue I feel even more confident that my prediction is true, despite much feedback on my original post that largely attempted to set me straight (it remains my second most commented on post). Why do I still feel this way? Let me count the ways:

  1. If people are buying it, they're not using it. I get out of the house quite a bit. Some would say I travel a lot, actually. I am a "1K" flier with United, which means I fly at least 100,000 miles a year. In all of these miles -- not just on planes, but on trains going from the airport to the city, or wherever -- I have yet to see one single person reading a Kindle. One single person. Meanwhile, I have seen umpteen (just how many is that, I wonder?) people using their iPhones. Why is that?
  2. Amazon continues to not report Kindle sales. Why? If it were a runaway success, don't you think they would want to trumpet that fact? But they clearly don't. Meanwhile, Apple continues to report record sales figures for the iPhone. Why is there silence from Amazon and open information from Apple? You tell me your opinion, I already have mine.
  3. It's industrial design sucks. Whomever Amazon hired to design the device must be fired. Compare the Kindle to anything coming out of Apple these days. Do you lust after the Kindle like most people lust after the iPhone? I think not. It's designed like a PC for cryin' out loud. Why, after all these years do PC designers not get the fact that it should look good as well as function well? I can't believe I still see people carrying around poorly designed bricks that not only look like you settled for second best but also don't work well and the only reason I hear is that they cost a few hundred dollars less. Meanwhile they cost thousands more in lost productivity. Good luck with that. I have a Mac and I can run virtually any software on the planet, plus it has gorgeous industrial design and wears like iron. Unlike the Kindle.
  4. The math doesn't work. The device itself sells at the moment for $359. Then to add content to it (beyond the freebie stuff), you're likely talking something on the order of $10 a title, based on what Amazon currently wants to sell me. Sure, if the book is a brand-new hardback, and you have to get it now, then there is a savings. But I've never bought books as brand-new hardbacks. Not even when the U.S. publishing industry held us for ransom over the paperback version of The DaVinci Code (which I could have bought in Paris long before it's US debut). To this day, most of what I read I buy for about $1-2 each at the local library book sale. Meanwhile, a Kindle user would need to save a lot on buying hardbacks to make the math work.
  5. The buzz just isn't there. Go to Technorati.com and search on "kindle". Look at the image of the number of mentions in blogs, in the lower righthand column. Then search on "iphone" and do the same. You will most likely see an order of magnitude difference (that is, a difference of 10 times) in the number of mentions of "iPhone" as you do "Kindle". Sure, I realize that the Kindle is much more of a niche device than the iPhone. But still. If the Kindle were actually "hot" we'd know.
I'm not trying to sink e-books or e-book readers. Far from it. I just happen to believe that the Kindle is not it. It isn't the device that will put e-books over the adoption hump. Meanwhile, word on the street is that there will not be a revision of the Kindle in time for Christmas. The prosecution rests.

OK, so let me have it. I can take it. Tell me why I'm wrong, or admit to some doubt yourself.

Posted by Roy Tennant on November 12, 2008 | Comments (11)


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November 13, 2008
In response to: Kindle Controversy Revisited
Mary M commented:

It's too fragile and the content model isn't there for libraries yet. But for individuals, it is a knock-em-dead way to read the morning paper, news magazines, books, work documents and even the occasional blog. Travels exceptionally well - not just on airplanes, but throughout one's day.




November 13, 2008
In response to: Kindle Controversy Revisited
Jon Gorman commented:

Hey, the Oprah show at least doubled sales. She had to have one on stage and one of the assistants had to have one to do the research/write up the script.

;).




November 13, 2008
In response to: Kindle Controversy Revisited
Jeff commented:

Underlying it all is the question of how often do you buy books versus borrow books. The common refrain is, "




November 14, 2008
In response to: Kindle Controversy Revisited
Emily commented:

I don't have one of these things, but I think you're being unfair. Why compare the Kindle to the iPhone, something that is a late-generation version of two familiar devices, the cellphone and the iPod? The comparison isn't valid enough to harp on like you have. Instead, you should at least compare the Kindle to the first generation of iPods or Palm Pilots--back when people needed to be convinced that they would find a use for the device in the first place.

Second, I think you're overlooking the fact that some books are now available through the usual not-so-legal means. Nothing like the scale of music and movie downloads, of course. I'm not condoning this, just pointing out that the iPod took off at least in part as a result of music being available in the right format for free. If enough people buy Kindles to create a similar "market" of ebooks, that will induce more people to buy them--there is a critical mass issue here.

I agree with you about the design. If I bought one it would be the Sony version.




November 14, 2008
In response to: Kindle Controversy Revisited
Roy Tennant commented:

Emily, you raise some important points, although I would argue with you about how "early" a market e-book readers actually are. E-book readers were first introduced a number of years ago. They failed miserably, which lead to a multi-year hiatus of no reasonable product on the market. So this is at least the second attempt at the market. I agree it is unfair (as I pointed out in my post) to compare what might be considered a niche product (although virtually everyone who uses a cellphone reads) with a ubiquitous one. Still, I stand behind my criticisms.




November 16, 2008
In response to: Kindle Controversy Revisited
Sebastian commented:

Hey Roy. The issue of the economy of the Kindle hit slashdot yesterday, on Nov 16.




November 19, 2008
In response to: Kindle Controversy Revisited
Steve commented:

Can't speak for the broader population, only for personal use. I use my Kindle regularly every day and have done so since I purchased it in July. I currently subscribe to the Wall Street Journal on the Kindle and I am also using it for fiction reading and the Bible. Since July, I have seen two people using Kindles on my commuter train, and one using the Sony Reader. The Kindle has features I like, and features I don't. I definitely like the easy downloading (books and stories from $10 to free) and the portability. It's great for text (instant large print when needed!), but still weak for illustrations (too small, black & white, and unable to be enlarged). The Kindle also can't directly handle PDF's, although they can be converted to Kindle format (including the RDA draft) via the free Mobipocket reader. Kindle certainly has a "first generation" feel to it, but I enjoy using it and plan to continue to do so until, regrettfully, I have to upgrade to the next version.




November 19, 2008
In response to: Kindle Controversy Revisited
Jimmy Thomas commented:

Hi Roy,
I'll probably never buy a Kindle because I like the total library experience of browsing online catalogs, placing holds, walking to a branch library, and reading books made of paper. But my siblings and I are giving my dad a Kindle for his 80th birthday. He's an avid reader and book buyer; and his limited mobility and declining vision call for a "book" he can reload from his easy chair, with font sizes he can adjust. After I see whether he uses the thing or not, I'll withhold half my vote on your referendum. -Jimmy




November 20, 2008
In response to: Kindle Controversy Revisited
ZACH commented:

TRY AND BUY ONE NEW OR USED ON EBAY. NO REAL DISCOUNT ON PRICE-- THAT SAYS IT ALL.




February 9, 2009
In response to: Kindle Controversy Revisited
joe r. commented:

how bout now bitch?




June 3, 2009
In response to: Kindle Controversy Revisited
eliz conner commented:


I have stopped reading books just using my kindle. Just returned from Europe loved only having to carry 1 book instead of the 4-5 I usually packl





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