Tim Flannery

By Gregg Sapp, Science Lib., SUNY at Albany -- Library Journal, 12/15/2005

Can one book change the world? In 1962 Rachel Carson’s Silent Spring opened our eyes to the ecological devastation wrought by pesticides. Now global warming and climate change come to the forefront with Tim Flannery’s The Weather Makers, which has already prompted Australia to reevaluate its carbon emissions policy.

Initially you were skeptical about global warming. What changed your mind?

I had studied geology and knew that climate change had occurred in the past. So at first I was skeptical that contemporary climate change could present such a great threat. But then I began reading more carefully the many studies of climate change published in the world’s lead science journals. They convinced me that the threat was real and that, if anything, much of what I had heard from colleagues was underestimating that threat.

So much has been written about global warming; how do we know who to believe?

A lot of misinformation about climate change has been spread by special-interest groups spending millions trying to mislead the public. In addition, the media have, until recently, taken a “balanced” view, giving equal time to the climate skeptics. If you want the real facts, you need to go to credible sources like the lead journals Nature and Science. They reject nine out of ten publications submitted to them, so there you are getting access to the very best science available.

How would you respond to a critic who characterized your book as “alarmist”?

The situation we face in respect of climate change is alarming, but my book is not alarmist. Instead, it presents the facts as we know them and lays out scenarios (some of which are alarming) alongside assessments of how likely they are to occur. Some are not very likely. I find that most critics do not attack the science in the book. Instead, they attack me personally or make broad and baseless claims.

The year 2050 has a notable significance in your book. Please describe what and why.

Demographic studies indicate that human population will peak around then, and if we have not reduced our emissions of greenhouse gases by 70 percent by that time, we will have very serious climate problems. We could be facing runaway change, including the shutdown of the Gulf Stream, the destruction of the Amazon rainforests, and the melting of the tundra followed by mass release of methane, a very powerful greenhouse gas.

Really, the most important thing about the year 2050 is that by then the fate of humanity will be decided. That’s only 45 years away, and there is a huge amount of work to be done if we are to transition to the new, low-emission energy economy.

The solutions you offer will encounter political and economic opposition, as well as personal sacrifice. Are they realistic?

As an Australian or an American, it’s easy to forget that most of the world’s governments, and many of its industries, are already well on the way to combating climate change. Our nations, along with Monaco and Liechtenstein, are the only ones not to have ratified the Kyoto Treaty. We are lagging, and our economies and environment will suffer as a result.

And I don’t think that the solutions to climate change involve significant personal sacrifice. In many instances, people and industry will be better off. Just look at the success of hybrid fuel cars. And here’s one tiny example from my own life. My father is nearly 80, and because of high fuel prices and concern about climate change, he has recently begun to walk the three kilometres to the supermarket. He told me that he feels 20 years younger as a result of the exercise! So making changes is possible—and desirable. It’s letting our planet be ravaged by climate change just because we wish to continue to burn coal and drive big cars that’s unrealistic.

If you could hand over a copy of your book to one person in the world, who would that be? How would you sign it?

That would have to be to the leader of the free world, President George W. Bush. I’d sign it, “To the man who can make a difference. Your country, and the world, depends upon the actions you take to combat climate change.”